Trouble ahead ?

I’ve been doing a bit of research regarding the correlation between goal attempts and how in general terms a team is doing. Pretty boring stuff I hear you say………….but bear with me.

In the Championship for the last five seasons, out of the 15 teams promoted, 11 of them appear in statistics showing that they were in the top five teams for goal attempts that were on target, whilst 14 of them were in the top five for least goal attempts against them.

Of the 15 teams relegated, 12 of them were in the top five for the most shots on target against them, whilst 14 of them were in the bottom five teams for their own scoring shots on target.

It’s not rocket science that the more shots you have at goal, the more likely you are to score. However, the statistics do throw up some interesting facts as far as Charlton are concerned.

It’s a bit early in the season to be making assumptions, and you really need another couple of games to get a more accurate prediction. The figures are easily distorted by a variety of instances such as good or bad luck, transfers-both in and out, confidence or lack of, a new manager etc. etc, but the last five seasons show that a very accurate picture can be drawn after about 10 games.

So let’s have a look a few statistics. This is a current league table based on shots at goal. The first figure is the number of shots by a team, and the second figure is the number of shots on target.

Norwich City…………………….156/50
Middlesbrough………………….141/40
Brighton & Hove Albion………140/38
Watford……………………………120/40
Sheffield Wednesday………….118/31
Rotherham United……………..118/34
Millwall……………………………116/38
Wolverhampton Wanderers.. 114/31
Derby County……………………114/43
Blackburn Rovers………………114/42
Nottingham Forest…………….112/37
AFC Bournemouth……………..110/40
Ipswich Town……………………104/31
Bolton Wanderers………………104/31
Huddersfield Town…………….103/33
Fulham…………………………….103/28
Brentford………………………….101/32
Birmingham City………………..101/25
Blackpool………………………….  95/23
Reading……………………………  85/24
Cardiff City……………………….  83/29
Wigan Athletic…………………… 81/21
Charlton Athletic……………….  78/24
Leeds United……………………..  67/23

You can see clearly from this that currently only Leeds United have a worse record than Charlton.

Next we’ll have a look at a league table based on the least number of goal attempts against them. The first figure is the number of attempts against each team, and the second figure is the number of shots on target against them.

Brighton & Hove Albion………70/24
Middlesbrough…………………..72/19
Wigan Athletic…………………..75/28
Nottingham Fores…………….. 90/31
Sheffield Wednesday…………..93/23
Wolverhampton Wanderers…93/22
Ipswich Town…………………….95/31
AFC Bournemouth…………….100/29
Millwall…………………………..100/28
Rotherham United…………….101/30
Norwich City……………………104/30
Fulham……………………………108/41
Derby County……………………111/39
Blackburn Rovers………………112/43
Huddersfield Town……………112/38
Reading…………………………..114/36
Blackpool………………………..118/33
Watford………………………….125/37
Charlton Athletic……………..128/38
Brentford………………………. 129/45
Cardiff City……………………. 131/30
Leeds United…………………..132/34
Birmingham City……………..137/37
Bolton Wanderers……………144/47

It’s still quite possible to be successful if you are at the wrong end of the goal attempts table as long as your opponents don’t have more attempts against you. This next table has four figures. The first figure is goal attempts made, the second figure is goal attempts on target, the third figure is goal attempts against them, and the fourth figure is goal attempts against them on target.

Teams where goals attempts against them exceed their own goal attempts are going to struggle, and this is where the relegation teams will come from.

Norwich City…………………….156/50…..104/30
Middlesbrough………………….141/40…..  72/19
Brighton & Hove Albion……..140/38…..  70/24
Watford…………………………..120/40…..125/37
Sheffield Wednesday…………118/31…..  93/23
Rotherham United……………118/34….. 101/30
Millwall…………………………..116/38….. 100/28
Wolverhampton Wanderers..114/31…..   93/22
Derby County…………………..114/43…..  111/39
Blackburn Rovers……………..114/42…..  112/43
Nottingham Forest……………112/37…..   90/31
AFC Bournemouth………….. 110/40…… 100/29
Ipswich Town…………………. 104/31…..   95/31
Bolton Wanderers…………… 104/31….. 144/47
Huddersfield Town………….. 103/33….. 112/38
Fulham………………………….  103/28….. 108/41
Brentford……………………….  101/32….. 129/45
Birmingham Cit………………. 101/25…..  137/37
Blackpool……………………….   95/23…..  118/33
Reading…………………………   85/24…..  114/36
Cardiff City……………………..   83/29…..  131/30
Wigan Athletic………………..    81/21…..   75/28
Charlton Athletic…………….    78/24……128/38
Leeds United…………………    67/23….. . 132/34

There are anomalies every season, and it looks as if Fulham and Huddersfield might be two of those teams this season where these statistics seem to show that they are in a reasonably comfortable position, whilst the actual league table would suggest something else. Watford could turn out to also be an anomaly due to the high number of attempts against them in relation to their true league position.

The other interesting statistic is that historically (based on the last 5 seasons), two of the promoted teams this season will come from the top five positions in the goal attempts tables, whilst a minimum of one of the relegated teams will come from the bottom five in the goals against table.

It would appear that Charlton are not going to get any higher than their current league position.

Over to you Big Bob.

Welling United 2, Charlton Athletic 0

A lovely beer fueled sunny afternoon at Park View Road, and an enjoyable afternoon’s entertainment, at least if you were a Welling United supporter that is. A healthy attendance of 2360 saw the game, the majority being either neutral or Charlton fans.

If you are a Charlton fan, it was another of those Charlton Athletic nil afternoon’s, with none of the forwards looking remotely likely to score.

Even a few beers in the Guy Earl of Warwick and the Nag’s Head before the game could hardly disguise the abject lack of skill for the best part by these two poor Charlton teams.

The game was barely a minute old when Rhoys Wiggins set the tone of the afternoon by hammering the ball out of the ground-and he wasn’t the only one to do it either.

Charlton had two different teams out today. In the first half we saw Phillips, Wilson, Wiggins, Morrison, Lennon, Browne (Stephen), Holmes-Dennis, Cousins, Munns, Church, and Pigott and the second half saw Pope, Solly, Fox, Gomez, Bikey-Amougou, Nego, Harriott, Jackson, Buyens, Ansah, and Vetokele.

It wasn’t long before the hapless Wiggins then tripped Blaine Hudson in the box and there weren’t too many complaints as Kieron St Amie put the ball passed Phillips in the Charlton goal. It was nearly 2-0 shortly afterwards as Joe Healy rattled the woodwork with Phillips well beaten. Charlton did have a couple of chances through Browne and Pigott but both lacked any real conviction.

Simon Church then did one of his well rehearsed dives in the penalty area with arms to the sky claiming a penalty. Church had one further chance before thankfully being rested at half time, but in all honesty my Nan could have saved his shot. Welling went into the interval 1-0 up, and few could complain that they didn’t deserve it.

We all hoped for a bit of the “old Charlton” in the second half, and it wasn’t long before Chris Solly rifled a ball across the Welling goal, and Harriott crashed Solly’s cross agonisingly wide, when on another day it might have found the net.

Halfway through the second period, and Welling were on the back foot, and Ansah went close with a glancing header, but it went all “pear shaped” shortly after, and somewhat against the run of play as Moses Ashikodi made it 2-0 to the Wings. Moans from the Charlton fans.

Veteokele had a chance near the end but he elected to pass rather than shoot, and the chance was lost, and in the last minute Fox blasted a good chance just over the bar.

Bob Peeters is the second Charlton manager to lose to the Wings. The other being the truly awful Iain Dowie.

Although it’s still early in the pre-season I think Bob Peeters will be slightly concerned about the lack of scoring chances being made. It looked like Pigott, and in particular Simon Church, could have played all afternoon and not found the net. Why is it we always seem to end up with non scoring forwards ?

There are rumours about loan moves for the both Pigott and Church, with Gillingham and Orient being mentioned. I just hope the O’s or the Gills didn’t have a scout at Park View Road this afternoon watching them, or they might be having second thoughts.

How I wish for a Kermorgant type forward. Our forwards today just looked a bit lightweight against the Welling defence, who in reality, didn’t have too much trouble defending their goal. The only forward who looked up to the task was Igor Vetokele.

Perhaps we’ll see some goals in Spain, and just perhaps, Bob Peeters will have a better idea what his best starting eleven are.

The Bexley Bodger