I’ve been doing a bit of research regarding the correlation between goal attempts and how in general terms a team is doing. Pretty boring stuff I hear you say………….but bear with me.
In the Championship for the last five seasons, out of the 15 teams promoted, 11 of them appear in statistics showing that they were in the top five teams for goal attempts that were on target, whilst 14 of them were in the top five for least goal attempts against them.
Of the 15 teams relegated, 12 of them were in the top five for the most shots on target against them, whilst 14 of them were in the bottom five teams for their own scoring shots on target.
It’s not rocket science that the more shots you have at goal, the more likely you are to score. However, the statistics do throw up some interesting facts as far as Charlton are concerned.
It’s a bit early in the season to be making assumptions, and you really need another couple of games to get a more accurate prediction. The figures are easily distorted by a variety of instances such as good or bad luck, transfers-both in and out, confidence or lack of, a new manager etc. etc, but the last five seasons show that a very accurate picture can be drawn after about 10 games.
So let’s have a look a few statistics. This is a current league table based on shots at goal. The first figure is the number of shots by a team, and the second figure is the number of shots on target.
Norwich City…………………….156/50
Middlesbrough………………….141/40
Brighton & Hove Albion………140/38
Watford……………………………120/40
Sheffield Wednesday………….118/31
Rotherham United……………..118/34
Millwall……………………………116/38
Wolverhampton Wanderers.. 114/31
Derby County……………………114/43
Blackburn Rovers………………114/42
Nottingham Forest…………….112/37
AFC Bournemouth……………..110/40
Ipswich Town……………………104/31
Bolton Wanderers………………104/31
Huddersfield Town…………….103/33
Fulham…………………………….103/28
Brentford………………………….101/32
Birmingham City………………..101/25
Blackpool…………………………. 95/23
Reading…………………………… 85/24
Cardiff City………………………. 83/29
Wigan Athletic…………………… 81/21
Charlton Athletic………………. 78/24
Leeds United…………………….. 67/23
You can see clearly from this that currently only Leeds United have a worse record than Charlton.
Next we’ll have a look at a league table based on the least number of goal attempts against them. The first figure is the number of attempts against each team, and the second figure is the number of shots on target against them.
Brighton & Hove Albion………70/24
Middlesbrough…………………..72/19
Wigan Athletic…………………..75/28
Nottingham Fores…………….. 90/31
Sheffield Wednesday…………..93/23
Wolverhampton Wanderers…93/22
Ipswich Town…………………….95/31
AFC Bournemouth…………….100/29
Millwall…………………………..100/28
Rotherham United…………….101/30
Norwich City……………………104/30
Fulham……………………………108/41
Derby County……………………111/39
Blackburn Rovers………………112/43
Huddersfield Town……………112/38
Reading…………………………..114/36
Blackpool………………………..118/33
Watford………………………….125/37
Charlton Athletic……………..128/38
Brentford………………………. 129/45
Cardiff City……………………. 131/30
Leeds United…………………..132/34
Birmingham City……………..137/37
Bolton Wanderers……………144/47
It’s still quite possible to be successful if you are at the wrong end of the goal attempts table as long as your opponents don’t have more attempts against you. This next table has four figures. The first figure is goal attempts made, the second figure is goal attempts on target, the third figure is goal attempts against them, and the fourth figure is goal attempts against them on target.
Teams where goals attempts against them exceed their own goal attempts are going to struggle, and this is where the relegation teams will come from.
Norwich City…………………….156/50…..104/30
Middlesbrough………………….141/40….. 72/19
Brighton & Hove Albion……..140/38….. 70/24
Watford…………………………..120/40…..125/37
Sheffield Wednesday…………118/31….. 93/23
Rotherham United……………118/34….. 101/30
Millwall…………………………..116/38….. 100/28
Wolverhampton Wanderers..114/31….. 93/22
Derby County…………………..114/43….. 111/39
Blackburn Rovers……………..114/42….. 112/43
Nottingham Forest……………112/37….. 90/31
AFC Bournemouth………….. 110/40…… 100/29
Ipswich Town…………………. 104/31….. 95/31
Bolton Wanderers…………… 104/31….. 144/47
Huddersfield Town………….. 103/33….. 112/38
Fulham…………………………. 103/28….. 108/41
Brentford………………………. 101/32….. 129/45
Birmingham Cit………………. 101/25….. 137/37
Blackpool………………………. 95/23….. 118/33
Reading………………………… 85/24….. 114/36
Cardiff City…………………….. 83/29….. 131/30
Wigan Athletic……………….. 81/21….. 75/28
Charlton Athletic……………. 78/24……128/38
Leeds United………………… 67/23….. . 132/34
There are anomalies every season, and it looks as if Fulham and Huddersfield might be two of those teams this season where these statistics seem to show that they are in a reasonably comfortable position, whilst the actual league table would suggest something else. Watford could turn out to also be an anomaly due to the high number of attempts against them in relation to their true league position.
The other interesting statistic is that historically (based on the last 5 seasons), two of the promoted teams this season will come from the top five positions in the goal attempts tables, whilst a minimum of one of the relegated teams will come from the bottom five in the goals against table.
It would appear that Charlton are not going to get any higher than their current league position.
Over to you Big Bob.
Charlton Athletic-"the team for me" 